What you can learn through Paddock Watching

Paddock Watching provides one of the best opportunities for the punter to make a steady and consistent profit betting on horses in UK Horse racing.

Although watching horses in the paddock is always going to be more of an art than a science, it's been overcomplicated by many commentators.

If you know the handful of key elements you should be watching out for when the horses are circling in the paddock before the race, you can make a profit at the racecourse.

I've done this consistently in both the UK and in France. I'd look out for a favourite that showed negative signs in the paddock and then oppose him by backing the second and/or third favourite. I find that the favourites very rarely win and that my horses win often enough to make a nice profit.

In this article, I'm going to explain what I look for when I'm  watching horses in the paddock and how I use this in my betting.

I'm going to give you tips that you can actually go out and use. Some of the most useless advice I've ever read for punters has been in the area of paddock watching.

For example, I've read that you should look for a horse that has "a generous eye", but avoid those that have too much "straightness in front".

Now, I don't know what "straightness in front" looks like, far less know how much is "too much".

So, I'm going to do my best to describe exactly what I look for when paddock watching, and what it means to me.

The Horse's Coat

I'm going to confess something: I have no ability to judge a horse's coat.

For me, if it's a sunny day, all the horses have shiny coats. If it's overcast, they've all got dull coats.

Now, I know that some paddock watchers can spot a healthy coat and recognise a dull coat. And I know that this is a significant factor for them. So, if you can spot the difference, that's a useful skill to have.

However, I'm not going to try to teach something that I can't do myself. So, for the purposes of this article, I'm going to ignore this factor (just as I ignore it in the paddock).

(1) Is the horse fit?

Every day, unfit racehorses turn up at racecourses ... and they almost always lose.

So, the first things I look for when I see a horse are:

Is the horse fat?

Excess weight can be hard to spot on a horse, but I've learned that one of the easiest places to spot it is while looking at the horse from behind.

The shape of the rump should be an upside down "U" shape. However, if it's carrying excess weight, the rump will be slightly higher either side of the middle, creating a "guttering" effect and turning the shape into a rounded upside down "w".

When I see that shape, particularly on a horse that's having only it's first or second race back from a break, I immediately put a line through its chances. It's overweight and it's going to run well below it's ability.

Is the horse fit?

Personally, I like a horse to be "hard fit", with good muscle tone.

The easiest place to check this is at the horse's hamstrings. There's a group of muscles called the biceps femoris and a muscle called the "poverty line". These should be well defined on a racehorse and look "tight".

If they're not tight, it's usually a sign that the horse lacks fitness and will run below his usual level in today's race. If the horse is a short price (under 7-1), I'm usually keen to take it on with something else in the race. This has been a very profitable strategy for me.

If you'd like to see a picture of this muscle group (plus a diagram of how a horse's rump looks like when it's fat), check out pages 22 and 24 of Geoffrey Hutson's book "Watching Racehorses". 

(2) The horse's energy level

The next thing I look at in the paddock is the horse's energy level. I like a horse that's striding "confidently" and "purposefully".

While, I wouldn't decide against a horse that's very relaxed, two things I hate to see are "slow walkers" and "short walkers".

"Slow walkers" are horses that seem to drag themselves round the paddock. You know how old people often walk, with no bounce and enthusiasm? These horse's walk like this.

"Short walkers" take noticeably shorter strides than the other horses and look like they're not carrying through with their stride. Again, a comparison with old people shuffling along the street should give you an idea of what I'm talking about.

These signs can show a lack of energy, a soreness or just a lack of enthusiasm for racing. None of these qualities help a horse give its best so, when you see a slow or short walker, you can be fairly confident that the horse is going to run well below its ability.

(3) Irritation

The final thing to look for in the paddock is signs of irritation in the horse's behaviour.

I don't place any importance on brief signs of irritability from the horse. What does worry me, however, is prolonged and escalating pushing and pulling with the handler (particularly when the horse is tossing its head repeatedly), any rearing, excessive sweating and tail swishing.

If this is going on, I always make sure I'm watching the horse when the jockey's about to mount. If the horse backs away from the jockey, then I'm not going to back it.

I must warn you, I've seen horses behave very badly pre-race and still win (Rakti, for example). So, don't go laying these horses like victory is out of the question.

However, experience has taught me that these horses usually make poor bets and are best avoided.

Summary: with just these 3 paddock watching rules, you can avoid a lot of losing bets and see an immediate improvement in your betting returns.